2022 Midterms: What’s at Stake in Texas?
The 2022 Midterms are going to be intense in Texas. There is the gubernatorial race at the top of the ballot as Greg Abbott and Beto O’Rourke face off. Redistricting is making already intriguing congressional and legislative races even more interesting. Texas is adding two new seats in Congress, and several races are shaping up to be fierce battles. On the state level, both the state House and Senate have their fair share of complications. And in addition to the governor’s race, the rest of the state executive branch is up for election, and Republican incumbents are facing some very strong challenges. The state courts are also on the ballot. Several cities and counties are holding elections for their top officials. And, unusually for an even-year election, voters will vote on a couple of ballot measures.
Texas is electing 38 representatives to the US House on the national level. Texas is adding two new congressional seats due to population growth fueled by BIPOC. Texas currently has 13 Democratic and 23 Republican congressmen. The old map had six competitive seats, but the new map really only has one. District 1 is solidly red, but incumbent Louie Gohmert is retiring to run for Attorney General, leading to an open primary. District 15 is the most competitive seat in Texas. It is about even in terms of partisan lean. It is currently open as incumbent Vincente Gonzalez has decided to seek reelection in another district. Democrats do not currently have a clear candidate, while Republicans are behind Monica De La Cruz, who lost in 2020 by a narrow margin. District 28 is rated likely Democrat but got interesting when Cassandra Garcia, a former staffer for Ted Cruz, announced her candidacy. She is running against incumbent Henry Cuellar and has Cruz’s endorsement. The filing deadline has passed for these races, but the new districts are in the courts, so it is possible districts will change. There will be even more of a mess if that happens, but Democrats would probably fare better.
The biggest news, of course, is the gubernatorial race. Since Beto O’Rourke announced his candidacy in November, he has been the presumptive Democratic nominee. Greg Abbott continues to be the presumptive Republican nominee but is now facing some serious primary challengers. Donald Huffines, a former state Senator from Dallas, and Allen West, the former Texas GOP Chair, are both running as more conservative candidates. Their candidacies have pushed Abbott further right. Abbott’s continual shift right and increasing involvement in social conservative issues have led to one poll finding 54% of voters think Abbott is more interested in playing politics than governing. Abbott is also facing Rick Perry in the primary. Except this is not former governor Perry, but rather a man with the same name. There are allegations of Huffines campaign supporting Perry’s campaign as an attack against Abbott, knowing he will draw votes from Abbott in the primary. Beto also faces several competitors in the primary, but no one is as well-known. Abbott is currently polling far ahead of Beto, after a recovery in his approval rating since September. Still, lots of Texans disapprove of Abbott; there is plenty of time for Abbott to lose his footing, especially considering he faces an ugly, if not difficult, primary.
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is also up for reelection. He doesn’t face anyone particularly well-known in his primary, but three Democrats are vying to run against him in the general. Trayce Bradford, Todd Bullis, Daniel Miller, Aaron Sorrells, and Zach Vance are all challenging Dan Patrick for the Republican nomination. In addition, Michelle Beckley, a state Rep, Carla Brailey, a professor at Texas Southern University and vice-chair of the Texas Democratic Party, and Mike Collier, who ran in 2018 and came within five percentage points, are all running. Matthew Dowd dropped out recently, citing the need for more diversity.
Attorney General Ken Paxton is perhaps the statewide Republican most likely to lose his seat. He is facing several legal problems. These include a 2015 securities fraud indictment he is still fighting and an FBI investigation. The investigation is into claims that he abused his office to help a wealthy donor. Paxton is endorsed by Trump but is still considered politically vulnerable. He is facing challenges in the primary from George Bush, the Land Commissioner, US Rep Louie Gohmert, and Eva Guzman, a former Texas Supreme Court Justice. All three are serious candidates capable of taking him down. They have all launched attacks against Paxton, saying he lacks the integrity to be the state’s top law enforcement officer. On the Democrat side, Rochelle Garza, a former ACLU lawyer, Joe Jaworski, the former mayor of Galveston, and Lee Merritt, a Dallas civil rights lawyer, are all competitive candidates.
There are a ton of other state executives on the ballot. The race for Controller has numerous Democrat and Republican candidates. Current Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is running for reelection. Miller is incredibly scandal-prone and faces several primary challengers, as well as Democrat Susan Hays, a prominent cannabis lawyer and hemp advocate. Hays has attacked Miller over his issues with ethics in a statement saying, “farming is hard, but ethics should be easy.” The Public Lands Commissioner and Railroad Commissioner races both have crowded Republican primaries. All fifteen seats on the State Board of Education are also up for election. Redistricting has also impacted this race as new districts decrease Dem seats.
All 31 state Senators are up for election. There are currently 13 Democrats and 18 Republicans. 16 Republican incumbents are safe in the new districts. The two being vacated by Republicans are all but guaranteed to remain Republican. Redistricting has put District 10 in jeopardy for Democrats. The district, previously entirely in Tarrant County, now includes parts of 7 other counties, which are largely rural and white, and Republican. The seat will likely go to a Republican, giving Republicans an additional seat in the Senate. Republican Senator Kel Seliger of the 31st district is not seeking reelection in other news. He and Lt Gov Patrick have had numerous ugly disagreements over policy. His likely successor Kevin Sparks was hand-picked by Trump and Patrick. In the 27th district, Democrat Eddie Lucio Jr is retiring. He was a conservative Democrat who often voted with Republicans to restrict abortion. Democrats vying for his seat are more liberal, although the seat has gotten redder, and Republicans are targeting South Texas.
The State House elections will also likely increase Republican control. Over two dozen representatives are not seeking reelection, either at all or in their current district. Republicans currently hold 83 seats to Democrats’ 66. State Rep Harold Dutton, a Democrat from Houston, has a primary challenger: Candis Houston. Houston is president of the Aldine chapter of the American Federation of Teachers. Dutton is facing criticism over his handling of legislation that placed restrictions on transgender student-athletes. He has broken with Democrats on numerous issues, including gun reform and education, and has been widely criticized over the years. Representative Ryan Guillen, who most recently made news for switching parties from Democrat to Republican, is facing multiple challenges in the primary. And Rep John Turner’s retirement has led to an interesting Democrat primary, the newest candidate being former Congressman John Bryant, who seems to be coming out of retirement.
There are also state court elections. Three justices on both the Supreme Court and the Court of Criminal Appeals are up for partisan election. All justices on both courts are Republicans, and most are facing challengers. This is the first election they face for several justices, having been appointed by Greg Abbott recently. Eighteen judges are up for election in the Courts of Appeals. These elections are also partisan, and most up for election are Republicans.
In addition to those statewide races, Texans will also be voting on District Attorneys, County Judges, District and County Clerks, and various other county and city-level positions. Those races are slower to gain traction in the news than statewide races but have a huge impact on the everyday life of Texans. This year at least two ballot measures will be on the ballot. Both are constitutional amendments related to taxes. The first would allow the state legislature to lower the amount of property taxes those that are elderly or disabled are expected to pay as tax rates are changed. The second amends the homestead tax exemption.
Texans will have a lot to vote on in 2022, and the primaries are just around the corner. From Governor to County Judges to members of Congress, there are a ton of really important races on the ballot so be sure to get out and vote.
As the March primary gets close, it’s important to stay flexible because you never know what could happen with such a volatile redistricting process. Democrats have a real chance to win on the statewide level, but we must get out and turn out the vote. You can join Rideshare2Vote in breaking down the transportation barrier here.
by Betsy Zalinski
